Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS62 KMHX 041759
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
159 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast. Still
monitoring the potential for stronger thunderstorms
Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly quiet weather with steadily increasing moisture to
start the week. Sea breeze worth monitoring on Wednesday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..High pressure anchored over the SE will gradually
shift offshore tonight into Tue. Deeper SW flow will continue
to advect in moisture with temps continuing to grad warm through
mid week.

If we`re able to overcome the dry layer between 700-850 mb,
Wednesday`s seabreeze could be active...though guidance is not
excited about convective potential right now. Machine learning
guidance shows low severe probs (10% or less), but decent bulk
shear and a LLJ could help produce a few stronger gusts within
convection. Precip chances will continue to increase into the
night as a cold front approaches from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to
negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the
surface, a cold front will move into ENC Thursday afternoon,
moving through Thu evening. Low pressure will develop along
the front, but guidance still differs on the speed of the front
and the strength and track of the low.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the
day, and there`s a non-zero chance for some storms to be strong
to severe. Forcing will be lacking in the morning, and
depending on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the evening front, destabilization may be dampened. So although
ample bulk shear will be present throughout the day, there are
several factors that could limit the severe threat. Will
continue to monitor the potential for stronger tstm development.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW
winds with gusts to 25-30 mph inland and 30-40 mph along the
coast.

A secondary low may develop along the offshore front Friday and
Saturday, which could support a few showers brushing the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions forecast for the rest of the period, as dry air
and a well mixed boundary layer should limit any fog or low
cloud development today and tomorrow. Diurnal Cu field
developing this afternoon at about 5 kft, and tomorrow afternoon
at around 4 kft.

High pressure has moved offshore bringing increasing S`rly
winds to ENC today, becoming gusty at times (around 15-20 kts).
Winds become light after sunset, increasing again to 15-20 knots
tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be
around Wednesday/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure system
and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring showers and
thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft early this
afternoon. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft later
this afternoon and early evening as thermal gradient
strengthens. Brief period of 25 kt gusts will be possible across
the eastern portions of the sounds and nearshore waters through
this evening, though still too marginal for SCA headlines. SW
winds will diminish to 5-15 kt late tonight and early Tue, then
again increasing to 10-20 kt Tue afternoon and evening.

Outlook: SSW winds 10-20 kt Wed, with SCA gusts possible by
Wednesday evening as the gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching cold front. On Thursday, prefrontal SW winds will
increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. Winds will veer to
the NW Thursday night behind the front. Seas will peak at 5-10
ft. Winds will decrease to 10-20 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt by
Friday morning with good boating conditions returning by the
afternoon. Light to moderate SW winds will continue this weekend
with seas 2-4 ft.

Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be
possible on Thursday as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...CQD